The 4th International Symposium on Mine Safety Science and Engineering (ISMSSE2018)

232 / 2018-05-05 12:44:43

Prediction method study of Chinese coal mine accidents using ARIMA model

Safety,Coal mine accidents,Prediction,ARIMA model

Mine Safety Science Theory and Emergency Rescue > Mine safety Informatization

In China, coal mine is one of economic sectors with high incidence of accidents, where workers can suffer injuries and death. Utilizing a set of data composed of 10,442 coal mine accidents investigated in the decade 2006-2015 in China, the paper studied a kind of method for forecasting the trend of coal mine accidents. To carry out the study, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) had been applied. And the predictions have been performed using EViews software. As a result, we set up three ARIMA models for the trend. From this study, the prediction method is obtained which can help managers to forecast the coal mine accident trend and make the right judgment to reduce the rate of accident occurrence, injuries and death.