The 4th International Symposium on Mine Safety Science and Engineering (ISMSSE2018)

290 / 2018-04-29 10:13:08

An empirical study of early warning model on the number of coal mine accidents in China

coal mine accidents,BN model,VAR model,early warning

Mine Safety Science Theory and Emergency Rescue > Mine safety management

Coal mining is an important energy industry and accident prone industry. The objective of this study is to establish early warning model for coal mine accidents. According to the accident data in the recent 11 years, we can conclude that the coal mine accident data has the characteristics of large fluctuations, small sample size, small value, large numerical nonlinear characteristics. Through consulting literature, analysis and comparison, policy intervention degree(PID)、Main raw material purchase price index(RMPPI)、Employment index (EI) are selected as the auxiliary variables to construct the early warning model. VAR model is applied to determine the model structure. Results show that BN model is suitable for the prediction of the number of mine accident.