2019 26th Saint Petersburg International Conference on Integrated Navigation Systems (ICINS)

3 / 2018-09-28 11:24:06

Prediction of the Development Cost of General Aircraft Based on Small Sample and Poor Information

General aircraft, Development cost, Small samples, Cost-driven factors, Design-oriented, Regression analysis, Regression coefficient

The study on the development cost of general aircraft usually has only small samples and poor information with a considerable amount of cost-driven factors. How a flexible design-oriented development cost method for general aircraft is developed is presented. The methodology is based on the collected cost data and actual technical, and then the cost prediction relationships derived from an exhaustive statistical and filtered from regression analysis are incorporated. A series of regression equations with high regression coefficient is yielded after the cost driving factors of the development cost are fixed. Next, several sets of equations with high regression coefficient are selected for final integration. Besides, it is suggested by comparing the approach with the known method that the scheme proposed is more efficient and convenient.