2019 International Conference of Geospatial Information and Public Health (GIPH 2019)

115 / 2019-11-04 09:50:54

Title: Feasibility of containing shigellosis in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study Running title: Feasibility of containing shigellosis

Shigellosis; Transmission control; Feasibility; Mathematical model

Track B. Public health related topics > Track B - Default subject

Background: The transmission features and the feasibility of containing shigellosis among the Chinese population in a large outbreak remain unclear.
Methods: A whole–population–based Susceptible – Exposed – Infectious / Asymptomatic – Recovered (SEIAR) model was built including decreasing the infectious period (DIP) or isolation of shigellosis cases. We analyzed the temporal distribution of the reported shigellosis cases in Hubei Province, China from January 2005 to December 2017, and divided the time series into several stages according to the heterogeneity of reported incidence during the period. In each stage, an epidemic season was selected for the modelling and the effectiveness of DIP and case isolation were assessed.
Results: During the study period, 130770 shigellosis cases were reported in Hubei Province. The reported incidence decreased significantly (trend χ2 = 8260.41, P < 0.001) among four stages. The median of Reff was 1.13 (range: 0.86 – 1.21), 1.10 (range: 0.91 – 1.13), 1.09 (range: 0.92 – 1.92), and 1.03 (range: 0.94 – 1.22) in 2005 – 2006 season, 2010 – 2011 season, 2013 – 2014 season, and 2016 – 2017 season, respectively. The incidence of shigellosis decreased sharply when DIP was implemented in three scenarios (γ = 0.1, 0.1429, 0.3333) and when proportion of case isolation increased.
Conclusions: Annual heterogeneity of reported shigellosis incidence exists in Hubei Province. It seems to be of high feasibility to contain the transmission by implementing DIP and case isolation.