中国气象学会气象青年科技交流会暨2021年青年科学家论坛

Two different bias correction methods, the quantile mapping (QM) and quantile delta mapping (QDM), are applied to simulated daily temperature and precipitation over China from a set of 21st century regional climate model (the ICTP RegCM4) projections. The RegCM4 is driven by 5 different general circulation models (GCMs) under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 at a grid spacing of 25 km using the CORDEX East Asia domain. The focus is on mean temperature and precipitation in December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA). The impacts of the two methods on the present day biases and future change signals are investigated. Results show that both the QM and QDM methods are effective in removing the systematic model biases during the validation period. For the future changes, the QDM preserves the temperature change signals well, in both magnitude and spatial distribution, while the QM artificially modifies the change signal by decreasing the warming and modifying the patterns of change. For precipitation, both methods preserve the change signals well but they produce greater magnitude of the projected increase, especially the QDM. We also show that the effects of bias correction are variable- and season-dependent. Our results show that different bias correction methods can affect in different way the simulated change signals, and therefore care has to be taken in carrying out the bias correction process.

Regional climate model; Bias correction; Quantile delta mapping; China