The 20th and 21st joint COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals (CICTP 2020-21)

The operation state of urban expressway interchanges systems is a chronic concern for traffic managers and travelers. The traditional methods can not sufficiently reflect the perception of travelers. This paper proposes a membership function model to reflect the fuzzy characteristic of perception of travelers to travel time increment, and calibrates the membership model based on Lease Square Method by defining fuzzy set and surveying the field data. Regarding the travel time as a random variation to build a random reliability model, then setting up a fuzzy and random reliability model after combining the fuzzy characteristic of perception of travelers with random characteristic of travel time. The numerical results from Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analyses show this model well depicts the operation state of the urban expressway interchanges from the perspective of travelers, also this model provides a better understanding what is the perspective of travelers.

CICTP