The 20th and 21st joint COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals (CICTP 2020-21)

With the construction of expressways and the increase in car ownership, the traffic safety problems of expressways have become increasingly severe. Based on the data of expressway accident data and vehicle mobile navigation trajectory data in a province, this paper firstly uses the statistical analysis method to study the characteristics of traffic accidents. Then it uses Wilcoxon signed rank test to quantitatively analyze the space-time characteristics of the road speed before and after traffic accidents; Then it uses the average speed of the upstream and downstream sections one hour before the traffic accident and five kilometers from the accident point to train the support vector data description (SVDD) model, and the corresponding hypersphere was obtained. Finally, the accuracy and feasibility of the accident prediction method proposed in this paper were verified by experiments. The research results will help the management department to predict expressway traffic safety, implement preventive measures in a targeted manner, and pre-regulate deployments, and issue early warning messages to reduce accident rates and mitigate accident hazards.

CICTP