The 20th and 21st joint COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals (CICTP 2020-21)

This paper quantitatively verifies the induced effect of the policy of highway free passage on major holidays on traffic by using measured coil data of G40 Yangtze River Tunnel & Bridge in 2018. It was showed that the policy implementation had a significant induced effect on small traffic with Free Holidays records generally distributed within the top 5% range of annual values. The mean of small traffic flow on Free Holidays was approximately 1.82 times of that of annual, and was quite close to the boundary of sum of mean and triple standard deviation of annual flow. Free Holidays records were 60% D-level and 40% E-level service range, which leading to long-time congestions potentially and inevitably. Data support and rational analysis for induced traffic can provide reference and guidance to a certain degree for the supply level of transportation facilities in terms of scale and rank. Objective assessments and risk evaluations can be provided as well for deeper understanding of traffic effect caused by policy.

CICTP