The 20th and 21st joint COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals (CICTP 2020-21)

With the implementation of the strategy of rural revitalization and the implementation of new energy vehicle development policies, the connection between urban and rural areas has become closer, urban and rural public transport has developed rapidly, and urban and rural new energy buses also occupy a place in the urban and rural public transport system. New energy urban and rural public transport passenger demand forecast is the prerequisite for urban and rural public transport planning, and scientific and reasonable forecasting is an important condition to ensure that the planning meets the future development situation. This article is based on the investigation and research on the current urban-rural public transport infrastructure, passenger flow distribution and urban-rural development planning in Huazhou District. Due to the special geographical location of urban and rural areas, the GM (1,1) model and the Malthus model are used to predict urban population and township population respectively; Using TransCAD software and the four-stage method, the influencing factors of urban and rural new energy bus ownership were added to predict the demand of new energy urban and rural bus passenger flow, and the practicality of the forecasting method and model was verified. The new energy urban-rural public transport passenger demand forecast ideas, methods and models proposed in this paper can provide theoretical support for studying the new energy urban-rural public transport passenger demand.

CICTP