The 22nd COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals (CICTP 2022)

In China, the problem of aging population is becoming more and more serious. Meanwhile, the age limit for obtaining a driving licence has been abolished. The traffic safety problem of elderly drivers has become increasingly prominent. In order to study the regularity of traffic accidents in the elderly, nationwide traffic accident data of elderly driver deaths from 2011 to 2019 were analyzed. The growth trend of elderly driver fatalities was obtained by using gray forecast model. At the same time, national accident data from 2014 to 2019 were used to compare accident types among elderly drivers and drivers of other age groups.The findings were as follows: (1) According to the model prediction results, the number of elderly driver fatalities in recent years across China showed a trend of increasing. (2) Elderly drivers were more prone to vehicle-to-vehicle accidents and single-vehicle accidents.The results were helpful to reveal the characteristics of national elderly drivers in traffic  accidents and provided theoretical basis for improving traffic safety management of elderly drivers.
 

Elderly driver ,Traffic accident, Situation analysis, Gray forecast model