第十一届全国室内环境与健康大会

191 / 2023-05-19 15:17:52

Continued rise in health burden from ambient PM2.5 in India under SSP scenarios despite decreasing concentrations until 2100

PM2.5,SSPs,health burden

Forecasting alterations in ambient air pollution and the consequent health implications is crucial in safeguarding public health, advancing environmental sustainability, informing economic decision-making, and promoting appropriate policy and regulatory action. Nonetheless, the prognostication of such changes poses a substantial challenge, demanding the availability of accurate data, utilization of sophisticated modeling methodologies, and a meticulous evaluation of a diverse array of factors.  In this study, we amalgamate several exposure models of pollutants and multiple methodologies for calculating health risks to calculate the premature mortality resulting from ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) exposure from the years 2015 to 2100, under four distinct socioeconomic and climate scenarios (SSPs). PM_2.5 concentrations are found to decrease in all SSP scenarios except for SSP3-7.0, with the lowest concentration scenario being SSP1-2.6. Results indicate an upward trend in deaths by age-stratified group across all scenarios, rising by 0.36-0.47 million. Upon further analysis, we find that the benefits of reducing PM_2.5 concentrations in all scenarios will be largely offset by population aging and growth.  The outcomes of our study underscore the necessity for implementing proactive measures and comprehensive approaches in India to enhance atmospheric quality and reduce vulnerability to aging considering the changing climatic conditions.