Presentation Details
Forecast Skills and Predictability Source of the Marine Heatwaves in the NUIST-CFS1.0 Hindcasts
ID：1182
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Updated Time：2024-04-11 12:25:34 Hits：1718
Oral Presentation
Start Time：2024-05-20 11:16（Asia/Shanghai）
Duration：13min
Session：S12 主题12、大气物理与气象气候 »
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Abstract
Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System (NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period of 1983-2020, this study investigates the forecast skills of the marine heatwaves (MHWs) over the globe and the predictability source of the MHWs over the tropical oceans. The MHW forecasts are demonstrated to be skillful on seasonal-annual time scales, particularly in tropical oceans. The forecast skill of the MHWs over the tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO) remains high at the lead time of 1-24 months, indicating a forecast better than random chance for up to two years. This forecast skill is subject to the spring predictability barrier of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The forecast skills for the MHWs over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), tropical Atlantic Ocean (TAO), and tropical Northwest Pacific (NWP) are lower than that in the TPO. A reliable forecast at the lead time up to two years is shown over the TIO, while a shorter reliable forecast window (less than 17 months) occurs for the TAO and NWP. Additionally, the forecast skills for the TIO, TAO, and NWP are seasonal dependent. Higher skill for the TIO and TAO appears in boreal spring, while a greater skill for the NWP emerges in late summer-early autumn. Further analyses suggest that ENSO serves as a critical source of predictability for the MHWs over the TIO and TAO in spring and MHWs over the NWP in summer.
Keywords
Marine heatwaves,NUIST-CFS1.0 hindcasts,forecast skill,predictability source,ENSO
Speaker
马静
副教授 南京信息工程大学Submission Author
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Important Date
-
Conference Date
May 17
2024
toMay 20
2024
-
Mar 31 2024
Draft paper submission deadline
-
Mar 31 2024
Contribution Submission Deadline
-
May 20 2024
Registration deadline
Sponsored By
青年地学论坛理事会
Organized By
厦门大学近海海洋环境科学国家重点实验室
中国科学院城市环境研究所
自然资源部第三海洋研究所
中国科学院城市环境研究所
自然资源部第三海洋研究所
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