第九届青年地学论坛

The Amazon region serves as a crucial global carbon reservoir, yet it is undergoing a rapid transformation due to fires. While historical occurrence of fires in the Amazon has been influenced by a combination of climatic and land-use factors, the specific contributions of these drivers remain unclear. In this study, using satellite-based active fire (AF) data alongside climate and land cover datasets, we analyzed trends in fire activity within the Amazon region from 2002 to 2020. Systematically assessing the interrelationships between drought, deforestation, and fires across various spatiotemporal scales, we interpreted the strength of primary drivers based on spatial regression models. Our findings reveal that drought anomalies account for a substantial 30.1% of the spatial-temporal variability in fire anomalies. Despite a surge in fire occurrence during EI Niño drought years, the spatial distribution of heightened fire activity does not consistently align with drought severity, attributing this to variations in the abundance of ignition sources. Additionally, while the contribution of deforestation to positive fire anomalies exhibited a gradual decline related to the implementation of the local forest protection policies, the persistent interaction between agricultural expansion and fire occurrence has resulted in a fragmented forest landscape that acts as a further catalyst for fires. Lastly, utilizing a robust spatial regression model, we ascertain that land use changes of deforestation and agricultural expansion explained the majority of the spatiotemporal occurrence of fires in the Amazon, while drought conditions played a minor role. This knowledge is important for devising fire prevention strategies that can anticipate future fire regimes in response to escalating human pressure and prolonged drought conditions.
 

Fire,Drought,Deforestation,Drivers,Amazon