第一届未来大气科学论坛

Scientific assessments of precipitation extremes in response to climate change have become increasingly significant. However, conducting such assessments has always faced a dilemma. On the one hand, the widely-used storyline approach with pseudo-global-warming (PGW) experiment could capture precipitation extremes under climate change. Nevertheless, its capability of studying the impacts of multi-scale systems is restricted due to the limited-area simulation strategy. On the other hand, the global cloud-resolving simulation is an effective approach to study the performance of multi-scale systems under climate change. Yet, the current computing limitations pose a significant challenge conducting global ensemble experiments. Confronted with this dilemma. This study devised an innovative solution: The storyline approach with a global PGW experimental framework. This framework is grounded an advanced global model featuring variable-resolution modeling techniques coupled with data assimilation. by using the proposed framework with a 60-3 km variation-resolution global model, the researchers quantitatively unveiled the strong response of the 7•20 Henan precipitation extreme to global climate change. Moreover, they illustrated the impacts of multi-scale system interactions under climate change, spanning from the large-scale subtropical high and double typhoon down to the mesoscale convective system. This study not only provides a new approach to solve the dilemma in assessing the extreme events in response to climate change, but also opens avenues to study the impacts of climate change on extreme events from the perspective of multi- scale system interactions.

precipitation extreme,variable-resolution,climate warming