第一届未来大气科学论坛

The zonal-mean subtropical westerly jet (SWJ) in boreal winter shows a significant northward shift trend under recent climate change. Previous studies proposed thermal forcing—represented by the thermal wind associated with the temperature gradient—and the driving effect of the eddy momentum flux (EMF) convergence that leads to the eddy-driven jet as explanations for this process; however, their relative importance in influencing the SWJ shift requires further investigation. In this study, we examined the roles of thermal forced and eddy-driven jet components in the zonal-mean northward SWJ shift. We also investigated the role of Hadley circulation because its poleward boundary is related to the zonal-mean SWJ. Results suggest that thermal forced component plays a major role, while EMF-driven component plays a secondary role. Specifically, the subtropical warming, which is primarily influenced by enhanced adiabatic downward motion of the Hadley circulation, increases the meridional temperature gradient and the associated thermal wind poleward of the SWJ. It also reduces atmospheric static stability aloft and converges the EMF on the poleward side of the climatological SWJ. Enhanced meridional temperature gradient and EMF convergence on the poleward side push the SWJ northward. Results from further mathematical analysis indicate that thermal forced and eddy-driven zonal wind components account for 72% and 28% of the shift distance, respectively. In addition to elucidating the relative importance of thermal and EMF forcings, this study emphasizes the critical role of the subtropical warming driven by the intensified local descending branch of the Hadley circulation in shifting the zonal-mean SWJ.
 

Westerly jet,eddy-mean flow interaction,Global Climate Change