第一届未来大气科学论坛

In response to the growing demand for energy and the need to support green development, this study investigates whether reduced solar radiation (SR) due to climate change can still support photovoltaic (PV) power development. We assess the PV technical potential of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) based on solar energy resources and land suitability, and estimates its capacity to meet future energy demand. According to the national standard for SR, the QTP is classified as having "Very Rich" solar energy resource, with the southwestern region and the Qaidam Basin as "Richest". From 1961 to 2023, annual SR has significantly declined and this trend is expected to persist throughout the 21st century. However, the stability of solar energy resources favorable for PV development is expected to improve. Optimal areas for PV development, based on terrain effects, land use, and nature reserves, are concentrated in the Qaidam Basin and southwestern Tibet. Due to the reduction in grassland and the expansion of forest, the land suitability for PV deployment is projected to decrease across most areas. In 2023, the QTP's PV technical potential was estimated at 9.58 trillion kWh, with projections by 2030, fully meeting China’s electricity demand, and meeting approximately 70% of the demand by 2060. Notably, under the low GHG emission scenario, higher SR and enhanced land suitability are expected to increase PV technical potential by the end of the 21st century. Further PV technical potential enhancement could be achieved through technological advancements, such as improved efficiency of PV system components and optimized panel installation angles. These findings offer critical insights to support China's PV development and energy transition.
 

Solar Radiation, Photovoltaic Power, Land Suitability, Technological Potential, The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau