24th Pacific Science Congress (PSC-24)

Replacing clinker with fly ash represents a critical circular economy pathway for cement clinker plants (CCPs) to CO₂ mitigation, yet this potential may be adversely affected by the phase-out of Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). Here, we draw upon a high-resolution infrastructure-level database encompassing approximately 4,460 CFPP units and 1,540 CCP production lines in China to analyze the mitigation performance and adaptation costs, of CCPs under various future CFPP retirement or flexible dispatching pathways through symbiosis simulations and cost-benefit analyses. Our findings indicate that, CCPs could reduce CO₂ emissions by 126 Mt and generate economic benefits of 7.5 billion CNY through clinker substitute by fly ash. However, these benefits would be undermined exceeding 40% with coal power phase-out under the 1.5°C goal in 2030. While deploying adaptation measures can compensate for 27 Mt of CO₂ losses, they also incur additional costs of 17 billion CNY for CCPs, risking net benefits with estimated loss of 8.8 billion CNY. Developing systematic and collaborative decarbonization strategies for the highly-connected industries is essential to mitigate transition risks and improve decision-making effectiveness.

cement-sector,low-carbon transition risk,circular economy