第二届未来大气科学论坛

948 / 2026-03-26 20:31:50

Pacific Extratropical Precursors and Dynamic Mechanism of Two Types of Summer ENSO: Continuing and Emerging ENSO

Pacific Ocean; Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Atmospheric circulation; Dynamics; ENSO

主题1 天气、气候、全球变化、行星大气 > 专题1.15 热带海气相互作用

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits great diversity in temporal evolution, which can be classified into two types of summer ENSO: “continuing ENSO,” persisting from the previous winter, and “emerging ENSO,” newly developing from late spring. However, the initial signal sources and dynamic processes underlying these two types of summer ENSO remain unclear. This study identifies the joint effects of extratropical North Pacific index (NPI) and extratropical South Pacific index (SPI) during the boreal winter as key initial signals affecting the diversity of ENSO evolution by modulating equatorial zonal wind anomalies. When boreal winter sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) show a positive phase, a positive NPI+SPI in the preceding winter triggers equatorial easterly wind anomalies in spring. These anomalies reinforce ocean dynamic processes through positive feedback with local precipitation, leading to a strong SSTA tendency that facilitates the formation of emerging La Niña. The converse initial conditions yield emerging El Niño, driven primarily by the same dynamic processes. For continuing ENSO, a negative NPI+SPI following positive winter SSTAs induces equatorial westerly wind anomalies in spring, driving positive SSTAs and precipitation anomalies through wind–evaporation–SST feedback. This circulation configuration regulates SST dissipation through changes in latent heat and shortwave radiation flux anomalies. The air–sea interaction dominated by thermodynamic processes results in a weaker SSTA tendency, enabling the ENSO signal to persist into the following summer under the condition of greater ocean heat content in the preceding winter, exhibiting characteristics of continuing El Niño. The converse initial conditions lead to continuing La Niña through dominant thermodynamic processes. Our results provide a comprehensive and physically grounded understanding of the causal relationships behind the diversity of ENSO evolution.