第二届未来大气科学论坛

This study documented the delayed impacts of the January stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) on surface air temperature (SAT) over the mid-to-high latitudes of Eurasia during 1979–2024. The results show that the January SPV has a significant positive influence on the mid-to-high latitude Eurasian SAT, not only simultaneously but also extending into the following February and March. Specifically, a strong SPV is linked to warm SAT anomalies, while a weak SPV corresponds to cooling anomalies. In January, a strong (weak) SPV in January enhances downward Eliassen-Palm flux, leading to a positive (negative) phase of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and warming (cooling) anomalies over the mid-to-high latitudes of Eurasia. Due to the seasonal persistence of the SPV and AO from January to February, the NAO act a bridge linking the January SPV and February SAT over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes. In the subsequent March, the AO-associated Rossby waves propagate eastward form the North Atlantic to North Pacific. Additionally, the SPV signals induce sea surface temperature anomalies over the midlatitudes of North Pacific, leading to storm track anomalies via modulating the meridional temperature gradient. These conditions synergistically contribute to the development of Western Pacific (WP) pattern at the North Pacific during March, which exerts substantial impacts on SAT at the mid-to-high latitudes of Eurasia. These findings indicate that the stratosphere conditions are a precursor to s Eurasian air temperature anomalies by about two months.

平流层极涡；,欧亚中高纬气温,AO,NAO,西太平洋型