第八届全国中尺度气象学研讨会

This study investigates how different tropical cyclone (TC) track types modulate high-temperature events in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China and how these effects may change under global warming, using observational and reanalysis datasets together with high-resolution climate simulations. TC tracks are classified into four types: far-ocean recurving, short-track westward-moving, long-track northwestward-moving, and near-shore recurving TCs. Results show that PRD temperature responses to TCs strongly depend on both track type and TC-PRD distance. Short- and long-track TCs exhibit clear distance-dependent impacts, with warming at larger distances and cooling when approaching the PRD. Short-track TCs produce the strongest warming at intermediate distances (800–1700 km), whereas long-track TCs induce the strongest cooling within 800 km of the PRD. Near-shore recurving TCs exert a warming influence during their westward-approaching stage, whereas their eastward-departing stage has no significant impact. Far-ocean recurving TCs show limited direct influence on PRD temperature because they remain far from the region. These responses arise from track-dependent mechanisms. Warming associated with short- and long-track TCs is mainly driven by a westward-extended subtropical high and enhanced large-scale subsidence, whereas warming linked to westward-approaching recurving TCs is dominated by TC-induced subsidence on the western flank. Cooling during short- and long-track TCs is mainly caused by cloud–radiative effects and precipitation-induced cooling as storms approach the PRD. Under global warming, the frequency of all TC track types decreases, weakening both TC-induced warming and cooling effects over the PRD. The combined impact of TCs nonetheless remains net cooling, although weaker in the future climate.
 

Tropical cyclone, High temperature, Pearl River Delta, Global warming