2017 The 5th International Symposium on Project Management (ISPM 2017)

131 / 2017-06-30 10:32:37

The Researche on Experts'weights Based on Reliability of Launch site's Facilities

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Due to the particularity of the facility facilities, most equipment and components lack of the reliability base data, which makes it difficult for the launch site system to carry out PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) applications. In order to avoid the problem of data loss, this paper puts forward the reasoning model and the corresponding evidence reasoning algorithm, which is based on the theory of evidence and analytic hierarchy process, based on the expert scoring method. And use this model as a framework to calculate the mass function to modify the expert objective weight value, and take the corresponding parameters and the subjective weight of the experts to integrate.The filling process is given by taking the filling pump equipment as an example.