2017 The 5th International Symposium on Project Management (ISPM 2017)

95 / 2017-07-05 10:28:28

Research on PRA Modeling Method of the Carrier Rocket Lifting Process Based on Bayesian Net

PRA modeling,Bayesian Net,posterior probability,maintenance recommendations

The method of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has been widely used in reliability engineering because it can quantitatively analyze the risk of the system. In the process of rocket lifting, there exists potential safety hazard because of the complex procedure and facilities, as well as the large volume and quality of the rocket. To assess the risk of the lifting process, this paper analyzes the lifting process of the carrier rocket and identifies the risk preliminarily, and then, chooses the brake failure in translation stage as a typical initial event in the risk analysis using the method of PRA. Because of the ET/FT model can only conduct forward inference but cannot make backward diagnosis, the paper introduces Bayesian Net (BN) in the PRA modeling. By using the BN to restructure the system model which based on the pre-existing ET/FT model, the probability of consequence as well as the posterior probability of elementary events can be calculated. On the basis of the results, the paper explains the practical applicability of BN model and put forward daily maintenance recommendations to the facilities.