South China Sea Annual Meeting 2023 (SCSAM)

87 / 2023-07-29 07:45:59

Impact of Climate Change on the Global Potential for Japanese Kelp (Saccharina japonica) Farming Ecosystem Services

Climate change; Kelp farming; Ecosystem services; Nature-based solution; Habitat suitability; Machine learning

Japanese kelp (Saccharina japonica) is a prevalent brown algae species widely cultivated in the seas of China, Japan, and Korea. It is not only a staple in these countries but also globally farmed, with a significant portion (35.5%) of global seaweed production attributed to it as of 2020. In the wake of escalating global population and climate change, the potential of kelp farming has been increasingly recognized as a promising solution for the multifaceted issue encompassing global food supply, climate change, and biodiversity conservation. However, the applicability of kelp farming hinges on an accurate estimation of the available ecosystem services and their relationship with evolving climate conditions. In this study, we leverage ensemble habitat suitability models powered by machine learning to explore the worldwide spatial potential for Japanese kelp farming. We examine its capacity to offer provisioning and regulatory services under both current and forecasted future emission scenarios. Our findings suggest that Japanese kelp farming is feasible global coastal waters, including certain remote parts of the Bering Sea. Moreover, it offers climate regulating services that could potentially support regions in attaining carbon neutralization, although it’s unlikely to offset the aggregate effects of climate change completely. The advancing of global warming could push the suitable areas for seaweed farming towards the north, indicating that strategizing kelp farming in higher latitude nations could potentially offer a sustainable nature-based solution to regional food security and climate mitigation plans in the long run.